Quantifying Therapeutic Value: Determining the Anti-VEGF Market Size and Revenue

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Assessing the Anti-VEGF Market Size involves a complex calculation, factoring in the global incidence and prevalence of target diseases, the high price point of biologic drugs, and the chronic, recurring nature of the treatment regimen. Given the need for frequent, often monthly or bi-monthly, injections over many years for conditions like wet AMD, the cumulative revenue generated per patient is exceptionally high, which translates to a massive overall market valuation. The market size is also influenced by the adoption rate of new, premium-priced, longer-acting therapies, which command higher per-dose revenues but potentially lower overall treatment volumes due to reduced injection frequency.

The calculated market size must also account for the significant use of anti-VEGF agents off-label in ophthalmology, particularly the use of bevacizumab (originally approved for oncology), which significantly boosts treatment volume despite being a lower-cost option. Future market size projections are highly sensitive to the rate of biosimilar penetration; while biosimilars may reduce the total revenue ceiling due to price erosion, they may simultaneously increase the treatment volume by making therapy accessible to previously untreated populations, especially in emerging economies, leading to a complex but ultimately expanding market size.

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